What To Expect From Tractor Supply’s (TSCO) Q1 Earnings

Radek Strnad /
2024/04/24 3:07 am EDT

Rural goods retailer Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO) will be reporting earnings tomorrow before the bell. Here's what to look for.

Last quarter Tractor Supply reported revenues of $3.66 billion, down 8.6% year on year, missing analyst expectations by 0.5%. It was a mixed quarter for the company, with a decent beat of analysts' gross margin estimates. On the other hand, its revenue slightly missed estimates as its sales volumes fell 2.7% and prices fell 1.5%. 

Is Tractor Supply buy or sell heading into the earnings? Read our full analysis here, it's free.

This quarter analysts are expecting Tractor Supply's revenue to grow 3% year on year to $3.40 billion, slowing down from the 9.1% year-over-year increase in revenue the company had recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to come in at $1.72 per share.

Tractor Supply Total Revenue

Majority of analysts covering the company have reconfirmed their estimates over the last thirty days, suggesting they are expecting the business to stay the course heading into the earnings. The company missed Wall St's revenue estimates five times over the last two years.

Looking at Tractor Supply's peers in the consumer retail segment, some of them have already reported Q1 earnings results, giving us a hint of what we can expect. Genuine Parts delivered top-line growth of 0.3% year on year, missing analyst estimates by 1% and CarMax reported revenue decline of 1.7% year on year, missing analyst estimates by 3.2%. Genuine Parts traded up 12.7% on the results, CarMax was down 9.8%.

Read our full analysis of Genuine Parts's results here and CarMax's results here.

Inflation progressed towards the Fed's 2% goal at the end of 2023, leading to strong stock market performance. The start of 2024 has been a bumpier ride, as the market switches between optimism and pessimism around rate cuts due to mixed inflation data, and while some of the consumer retail stocks have fared somewhat better, they have not been spared, with share price declining 5.7% over the last month. Tractor Supply is down 0.7% during the same time, and is heading into the earnings with analyst price target of $247.4, compared to share price of $256.27.

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