What Happened:
Shares of work management software maker Asana (NYSE: ASAN) jumped 5.3% in the afternoon session as markets roared back after an initially muted response to the Fed's rate cut, which sparked a renewed appetite for risk assets. While investors were expecting a reduction in rates from the US central bank, there was a bit of back and forth on whether the cut would be 25bps (a quarter percent) or 50bps (half a percent).
The Fed ended up slashing its policy rate by 50bps (0.5%) to 4.75%-5.00%. This marks the first rate reduction in roughly four years. As a reminder, the Fed--under Chair Jerome Powell--began raising rates to tackle inflation coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic when a confluence of supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and stimulus spending caused inflation to run hot.
Looking forward, the Fed signaled that more cuts are possible in 2024/25. Putting it all together, the announcement and outlook provided a breath of fresh air and a clearer view of the Fed's monetary policy stance, which the market has been waiting for with bated breath. If there's anything the market doesn't like, it's uncertainty.
As a reminder, the driver of a stock's value is the sum of its future cash flows discounted back to today. The result of lower interest rates, all else equal, is higher stock valuations. This is especially true for higher-growth stocks such as those in the technology sector, where the current value depends more on cash flows many years out in the future.
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What is the market telling us:
Asana’s shares are very volatile and over the last year have had 33 moves greater than 5%. In context of that, today’s move is indicating the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 16 days ago, when the stock dropped 18.4% on the news that the company reported second-quarter earnings results. Its full-year revenue guidance missed Wall Street's estimates. Furthermore, its net revenue retention fell below 100%, meaning its customers spent less on its products. The company noted that deals are being delayed, and large customers are renewing with lower commitments. As a result, growth reacceleration is expected to be modest in the near term. Overall, this was a weaker quarter.
Asana is down 29.2% since the beginning of the year, and at $12.58 per share it is trading 46% below its 52-week high of $23.31 from December 2023. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Asana’s shares at the IPO in September 2020 would now be looking at an investment worth $436.63.
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