Over the past six months, Trex’s stock price fell to $74.43. Shareholders have lost 12.8% of their capital, which is disappointing considering the S&P 500 has climbed by 14.2%. This might have investors contemplating their next move.
Is there a buying opportunity in Trex, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're cautious about Trex. Here are three reasons why there are better opportunities than TREX and a stock we'd rather own.
Why Is Trex Not Exciting?
Addressing the demand for aesthetically-pleasing and unique outdoor living spaces, Trex Company (NYSE:TREX) makes wood-alternative decking, railing, and patio furniture.
1. Slow Organic Growth Suggests Waning Demand In Core Business
In addition to reported revenue, organic revenue is a useful data point for analyzing Home Construction Materials companies. This metric gives visibility into Trex’s core business because it excludes one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures along with foreign currency fluctuations - non-fundamental factors that can manipulate the income statement.
Over the last two years, Trex’s organic revenue averaged 5.1% year-on-year growth. This performance was underwhelming and suggests it may need to improve its products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy, which can add an extra layer of complexity to its operations. 
2. Projected Revenue Growth Shows Limited Upside
Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.
Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Trex’s revenue to stall, close to its 1.6% annualized declines for the past two years. This projection is underwhelming and indicates its newer products and services will not lead to better top-line performance yet.
3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines
ROIC, or return on invested capital, is a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
We typically prefer to invest in companies with high returns because it means they have viable business models, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is often what surprises the market and moves the stock price. Over the last few years, Trex’s ROIC has decreased significantly. We like what management has done in the past but are concerned its ROIC is declining, perhaps a symptom of fewer profitable growth opportunities.
Final Judgment
Trex isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our bar. After the recent drawdown, the stock trades at 36.6x forward price-to-earnings (or $74.43 per share). At this valuation, there’s a lot of good news priced in - you can find better investment opportunities elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at FTAI Aviation, an aerospace company benefiting from Boeing and Airbus’s struggles.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Trex
The elections are now behind us. With rates dropping and inflation cooling, many analysts expect a breakout market to cap off the year - and we’re zeroing in on the stocks that could benefit immensely.
Take advantage of the rebound by checking out our Top 6 Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 175% over the last five years.
Stocks that made our list in 2019 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+2,691% between September 2019 and September 2024) as well as under-the-radar businesses like Comfort Systems (+783% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free.