Blue Bird’s fourth quarter results were met positively by the market, driven by a combination of higher pricing, operational efficiency gains, and robust order activity. Management credited disciplined pricing actions and continued cost improvements for the margin performance, even as sales volumes held steady year over year. CEO John Wyskiel highlighted that order intake climbed 45% compared to last year, pushing the company’s backlog to a seasonally strong level. He also emphasized the company’s ability to pass through tariffs and maintain profitability. "Our Q1 order intake was up 45% from 2025, which pushed our backlog to a seasonally strong 3,400 units," Wyskiel stated, reflecting confidence in Blue Bird's positioning despite external pressures.
Is now the time to buy BLBD? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Blue Bird (BLBD) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $333.1 million vs analyst estimates of $330 million (6.1% year-on-year growth, 0.9% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1 vs analyst estimates of $0.80 (24.8% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $50.06 million vs analyst estimates of $43.21 million (15% margin, 15.8% beat)
- The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $1.5 billion at the midpoint
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $225 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $219.9 million
- Operating Margin: 11.3%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes were flat year on year, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $1.79 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Blue Bird’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Greg Lewis (BTIG) asked about the breakdown of margin drivers between pricing and efficiency. CFO Razvan Radulescu explained that roughly two-thirds of margin improvement came from pricing, while one-third was due to operational gains.
- Eric Stine (Craig Hallum) inquired about trends in propane bus demand and exclusivity. CEO John Wyskiel highlighted propane’s advantage in total cost of operation and ease of infrastructure setup, with continued strong customer acceptance.
- Mike Shlisky (D.A. Davidson) questioned the incremental impact of automation on future margins. Wyskiel stated the company had analyzed use cases and expects automation to provide tailwinds within the long-term margin outlook.
- Chris Pierce (Needham) asked about distributor and customer reactions to higher bus prices due to tariffs. Radulescu responded that tariffs are largely recognized as industry-wide, and customers prioritize fleet replacement needs despite pricing pressures.
- Andrew (Roth Capital Partners) sought detail on the EV market outlook and whether increased EV guidance was sustainable. Radulescu cited robust orders supported by state and EPA funding, noting that further upside would depend on production capacity and tariff costs.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will focus on (1) the pace of EV and propane bus deliveries and backlog conversion, (2) execution of automation initiatives and the impact on cost structure, and (3) how effectively Blue Bird manages tariff volatility while preserving margins. Progress on the new assembly plant and developments in commercial chassis will also be key indicators to track.
Blue Bird currently trades at $56.62, up from $49.69 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
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