Carlyle delivered a fourth quarter that was well received by the market, as both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share came in above Wall Street’s expectations. Management credited the performance to robust global fundraising, continued strength in private equity exits, and record inflows across its platform. CEO Harvey Schwartz specifically highlighted the success of recent IPOs such as Medline and ongoing capital returns to investors, positioning the company’s portfolio for current market conditions. Fee-related earnings and margin expansion were also supported by the scale and operating discipline across key business lines.
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Carlyle (CG) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $1.09 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.05 billion (15.1% year-on-year growth, 3.7% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.80 vs analyst expectations of $0.99 (19.1% miss)
- Adjusted Operating Income: $436.4 million vs analyst estimates of $433.2 million (40% margin, 0.7% beat)
- Operating Margin: 47.6%, up from 24.4% in the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $19.46 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Carlyle’s Q4 Earnings Call
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Alexander Blostein (Goldman Sachs) asked about the sustainability of private equity monetization momentum given recent market volatility. CEO Harvey Schwartz pointed to strong January portfolio data and emphasized confidence in exit activity, despite acknowledging near-term market jitters.
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Glenn Schorr (Evercore) inquired about the state of direct lending and credit quality, as well as Carlyle’s expansion in the wealth channel. Schwartz described progress in diversifying credit offerings and signaled that software exposure remains a small portion of total assets.
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Mike Brown (UBS) questioned the drivers of margin expansion across business segments. Schwartz deferred detailed breakdowns to the upcoming investor update but highlighted the operational discipline and resource investments that have supported recent margin growth.
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William Katz (TD Cowen) sought clarification on capital raising for new funds and priorities for capital allocation. Schwartz cited broad-based engagement across client types and geographies as key to fundraising success, with more details promised at the upcoming shareholder event.
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Patrick Davitt (Autonomous Research) probed for exposure to software-related risk in CLOs and the potential impact of recent market volatility. CFO Justin Plouffe noted Carlyle’s CLO performance as among the best in the industry and affirmed that software exposure is in line with market benchmarks.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the quarters ahead, the StockStory team will be watching (1) whether Carlyle can maintain its pace of private equity realizations and capital returns in a shifting macro environment, (2) sustained growth and product launches in the global wealth and retirement channels, and (3) continued expansion and resilience in private credit origination and CLO issuance. Execution on operational scale and margin improvement will also be critical signposts for long-term value creation.
Carlyle currently trades at $54.59, down from $55.41 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
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