CME Group’s fourth quarter results aligned with Wall Street expectations, supported by broad-based growth across asset classes and expansion in retail participation. Management pointed to increased activity in interest rate, energy, metals, agricultural, and cryptocurrency products as key drivers. CEO Terrence Duffy emphasized that the launch of new event contracts and strong performance in retail-focused micro products contributed meaningfully to quarterly momentum. The company also highlighted the resilience and diversification of its customer base, noting continued healthy engagement from both institutional and retail clients amid volatile market conditions.
Is now the time to buy CME? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
CME Group (CME) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $1.65 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.64 billion (8.1% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Adjusted EPS: $2.77 vs analyst estimates of $2.74 (1% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.13 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.13 billion (68.6% margin, in line)
- Operating Margin: 61.8%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $110.6 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From CME Group’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Dan Fannon (Jefferies) asked about the health of CME’s customer base amid volatility and margin changes. CEO Terrence Duffy and Derek Sammann explained that both retail and institutional segments remain strong, with open interest and volume growth indicating a healthy ecosystem.
- Patrick Molley (Piper Sandler) inquired about engagement with prediction markets and regulatory risks. Tim McCourt highlighted new market makers and clients, while Duffy clarified CME’s approach to legal and regulatory oversight, emphasizing a focus on swap-based products under CFTC jurisdiction.
- Benjamin Budish (Barclays) asked about pricing changes and their impact by asset class. Julie Winkler described diversified drivers of market data growth and Lynne Fitzpatrick outlined targeted fee changes, particularly in metals and micros, with ongoing review of incentive programs.
- Bill Katz (TD Cowen) questioned the durability of market data revenue amid AI disruption and capital return plans. Winkler and Duffy noted that proprietary data remains essential for clients’ trading strategies, and Fitzpatrick discussed the ongoing use of Austria proceeds for share repurchases.
- Ashish Sabadra (RBC Capital Markets) asked about the Google Cloud migration and related expenses. Sunil Cutinho reported solid progress, noting that future tech expenses are now integrated into broader guidance as legacy costs roll off.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will closely monitor (1) the adoption and revenue contribution from new crypto and event contract products, (2) regulatory progress on securities clearing and cross-margining initiatives, and (3) the impact of dynamic pricing and fee adjustments across core asset classes. The scalability and efficiency of ongoing technology investments, such as the Google Cloud migration, will also be important markers of CME’s operational execution.
CME Group currently trades at $308.25, up from $293.07 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
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