Mondelez's fourth quarter saw a negative market reaction, as investors digested a mix of higher-than-expected revenue but weaker profitability. Management cited persistent cost pressures, particularly from elevated cocoa prices and lower sales volumes, as key challenges. CEO Dirk Van de Put pointed to the resilience of the global chocolate market, despite significant price increases, but noted that adjustments were needed in certain European markets due to higher-than-anticipated price sensitivity. Management was notably cautious on the operating environment in North America, where consumer confidence remains low and snacking demand has softened.
Is now the time to buy MDLZ? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Mondelez (MDLZ) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $10.5 billion vs analyst estimates of $10.31 billion (9.3% year-on-year growth, 1.8% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.72 vs analyst estimates of $0.70 (3.3% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.60 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.66 billion (15.2% margin, 3.5% miss)
- Operating Margin: 9.1%, down from 16.8% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue rose 5.1% year on year (beat)
- Sales Volumes fell 4.8% year on year (0.1% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $77.85 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Mondelez’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Andrew Lazar (Barclays) pressed CEO Dirk Van de Put on how falling cocoa prices might impact chocolate pricing and competitive dynamics. Van de Put said Mondelez will maintain agility in pricing, noting, "We want to build in some flexibility in our guidance because we don't quite know how that is going to play out."
- Peter Galbo (Bank of America) asked CFO Luca Zaramella to clarify the phasing of cocoa cost impacts and chocolate price investments. Zaramella detailed that most cost headwinds would appear in the first half, with sequential improvement expected through the year.
- Megan Clapp (Morgan Stanley) questioned whether the net price-cost relationship for chocolate would be neutral or positive in 2026. Zaramella explained that, despite stable pricing, hedged cocoa costs would keep the balance slightly positive to neutral for the year.
- Chris Carey (Wells Fargo Securities) sought regional detail on expected volume trajectory improvements. Van de Put highlighted Asia, Africa, and Latin America as key growth drivers, while acknowledging North America’s ongoing consumer headwinds.
- Scott Marks (Jefferies) inquired about the potential business impact of GLP-1 weight loss drugs. Van de Put responded that even with higher adoption, the company expects minimal volume impact over the next decade.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the pace and effectiveness of increased brand and product investments in driving volume recovery; (2) the competitive response to lower cocoa prices and whether pricing stability can be maintained; and (3) regional sales trends, especially in emerging markets and value-oriented channels. Additional focus will be placed on the execution of supply chain modernization and its impact on cost efficiency.
Mondelez currently trades at $60.74, up from $59.47 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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