RFID manufacturer Impinj (NASDAQ:PI) met Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, with sales up 1.4% year on year to $92.85 million. On the other hand, next quarter’s revenue guidance of $72.5 million was less impressive, coming in 19.9% below analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.50 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy PI? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Impinj (PI) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $92.85 million vs analyst estimates of $92.44 million (1.4% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.50 vs analyst estimates of $0.51 (in line)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $16.43 million vs analyst estimates of $18.14 million (17.7% margin, 9.4% miss)
- Revenue Guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $72.5 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $90.56 million
- Adjusted EPS guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $0.11 at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $0.39
- EBITDA guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $1.95 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $12.78 million
- Operating Margin: -2.9%, up from -3.9% in the same quarter last year
- Inventory Days Outstanding: 173, down from 177 in the previous quarter
- Market Capitalization: $4.63 billion
StockStory’s Take
Impinj’s fourth quarter results were met with a significant negative market reaction, reflecting investor concerns over both the quality of performance and the underlying drivers. Management cited ongoing supply chain and inventory corrections within key retail and logistics markets, as well as slower-than-expected adoption in general merchandise and food categories. CEO Chris Diorio characterized 2025 as a “tough year for our industry,” attributing softness to tariffs, inventory reductions at multiple retail layers, and a lag in new account ramp-ups. The company also noted that a temporary inventory build in logistics had masked retail weakness, which only became apparent after a detailed review of channel data.
Looking ahead, management’s outlook is shaped by persistent headwinds in the first quarter of 2026, including ongoing inventory reductions and project timing issues. CFO Cary Baker projected a sequential revenue decline, driven by what he described as “a high teens percentage rate” drop in endpoint IC sales, primarily from supply chain partners burning off excess stock. Despite the near-term caution, CEO Chris Diorio expressed confidence that apparel and logistics markets would normalize as early as the second quarter, citing new custom chip deployments and expanding enterprise solutions as potential growth catalysts. However, management acknowledged that the timing of recovery remains uncertain, and that execution in inventory management and project ramp-ups will be critical.
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Management attributed the quarter’s performance to a mix of inventory corrections, custom chip transitions, and evolving customer demand patterns across end markets.
-
Inventory burn-down impact: The company faced notable inventory reductions in both retail apparel and logistics, with supply chain partners burning several weeks’ worth of stock. This correction, which management only fully recognized after analyzing partner data in January, masked underlying retail softness and contributed to revenue headwinds.
-
Custom chip deployment: Impinj began volume shipments of a custom application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) for a major North American logistics customer, signaling a transition away from the standard M800 product. Management expects the customer to fully switch to the custom chip this year, with the design tailored to their operational needs and end-user requirements.
-
Solutions-first strategy: The company is increasing focus on delivering integrated solutions, rather than just selling chips. Recent hiring of an executive vice president for enterprise solutions and new partnerships around the Gen2X platform are intended to accelerate this shift and open new enterprise opportunities.
-
Gen2X ecosystem expansion: Impinj added EM Microelectronic as a Gen2X licensee and is leveraging Gen2X’s advanced features to differentiate from competitors. Management views Gen2X as a key enabler for enterprise solutions and a driver of future market share gains.
-
Apparel and food market dynamics: While apparel and food segment volumes remained modest, management observed new accounts ramping up and ongoing conversations with retailers about broader RAIN RFID adoption. The company is positioning to benefit as inventory normalization and new store rollouts occur, particularly in food and bakery applications.
Drivers of Future Performance
Impinj’s outlook for the next quarter and beyond is defined by continued inventory normalization, custom product adoption, and a transition toward integrated solutions.
-
Inventory correction and timing: Management expects the effects of retail and logistics inventory burn-down to persist into the first quarter, with a possibility of spillover into the second quarter. CFO Cary Baker emphasized that while past corrections have sometimes resolved quickly, the company is taking a conservative approach to guidance due to the unpredictability of channel partner behavior and project timing.
-
Custom chip and enterprise focus: The transition to a custom endpoint IC for a large logistics customer is anticipated to maintain high share at that account and create opportunities for similar custom solutions with other enterprises. CEO Chris Diorio described this as a strategic pivot to “solution sales” that integrate hardware, software, and partner support, which could solidify long-term customer relationships but may carry near-term pricing and ramp risks.
-
Gen2X and broader market adoption: Expansion of the Gen2X platform and growing enterprise partnerships are viewed as potential growth drivers, particularly as new use cases and customer categories emerge in general merchandise and food. However, management acknowledged that broader adoption is contingent on successful execution and customer ROI realization.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, the StockStory team will be focused on (1) how quickly Impinj and its partners can clear excess inventory in retail and logistics channels, (2) the rate of adoption and rollout for the new custom endpoint IC among major logistics customers, and (3) progress in expanding Gen2X partnerships and enterprise solutions. Additionally, we will monitor early signals of recovery in apparel and food markets as key indicators for a return to growth.
Impinj currently trades at $126.09, down from $153.90 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
Stocks That Trumped Tariffs
If your portfolio success hinges on just 4 stocks, your wealth is built on fragile ground. You have a small window to secure high-quality assets before the market widens and these prices disappear.
Don’t wait for the next volatility shock. Check out our Top 5 Growth Stocks for this month. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).
Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.