The stocks in this article have caught Wall Street’s attention in a big way, with price targets implying returns above 20%. But investors should take these forecasts with a grain of salt because analysts typically say nice things about companies so their firms can win business in other product lines like M&A advisory.
Luckily for you, we at StockStory have no conflicts of interest - our sole job is to help you find genuinely promising companies. Keeping that in mind, here are three stocks where Wall Street’s estimates seem disconnected from reality and some better opportunities to consider.
Papa John's (PZZA)
Consensus Price Target: $46.73 (46.1% implied return)
Founded by the eclectic John “Papa John” Schnatter, Papa John’s (NASDAQ:PZZA) is a globally recognized pizza delivery and carryout chain known for “better ingredients” and “better pizza”.
Why Do We Avoid PZZA?
- Poor same-store sales performance over the past two years indicates it’s having trouble bringing new diners into its restaurants
- Gross margin of 12.1% is below its competitors, leaving less money for marketing and promotions
- Expenses have increased as a percentage of revenue over the last year as its operating margin fell by 3.6 percentage points
Papa John's is trading at $31.99 per share, or 18.5x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including PZZA in your portfolio.
Fiserv (FISV)
Consensus Price Target: $77.33 (29.5% implied return)
Powering over 1 billion accounts and processing more than 12,000 financial transactions per second globally, Fiserv (NASDAQ:FISV) provides payment processing and financial technology solutions that enable merchants, banks, and credit unions to accept payments and manage financial transactions.
Why Are We Hesitant About FISV?
- Annual sales growth of 5.3% over the last two years lagged behind its financials peers as its large revenue base made it difficult to generate incremental demand
- Earnings growth over the last two years fell short of the peer group average as its EPS only increased by 7% annually
- ROE of 9.4% reflects management’s challenges in identifying attractive investment opportunities
Fiserv’s stock price of $59.70 implies a valuation ratio of 7.3x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with FISV, check out our full research report (it’s free).
Novavax (NVAX)
Consensus Price Target: $12.89 (48.1% implied return)
Pioneering a nanoparticle technology that mimics the molecular structure of disease pathogens, Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) develops and commercializes protein-based vaccines for infectious diseases, with a primary focus on its COVID-19 vaccine and combination respiratory vaccine candidates.
Why Do We Think Twice About NVAX?
- Sales were flat over the last two years, indicating it’s failed to expand this cycle
- Projected sales decline of 52% for the next 12 months points to an even tougher demand environment ahead
- Free cash flow margin dropped by 73.8 percentage points over the last five years, implying the company became more capital intensive as competition picked up
At $8.70 per share, Novavax trades at 2.8x forward price-to-sales. If you’re considering NVAX for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.
Stocks We Like More
If your portfolio success hinges on just 4 stocks, your wealth is built on fragile ground. You have a small window to secure high-quality assets before the market widens and these prices disappear.
Don’t wait for the next volatility shock. Check out our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).
Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.