Geospatial technology provider Trimble (NASDAQ:TRMB) reported Q4 CY2025 results topping the market’s revenue expectations, but sales fell by 1.4% year on year to $969.8 million. Guidance for next quarter’s revenue was better than expected at $905.5 million at the midpoint, 1% above analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $1 per share was 4.1% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Trimble (TRMB) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $969.8 million vs analyst estimates of $947.8 million (1.4% year-on-year decline, 2.3% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1 vs analyst estimates of $0.96 (4.1% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $325 million vs analyst estimates of $309.5 million (33.5% margin, 5% beat)
- Revenue Guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $905.5 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $896.4 million
- Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $3.52 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 1.8%
- Operating Margin: 22.3%, up from 17.6% in the same quarter last year
- Annual Recurring Revenue: $2.39 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.40 billion (6% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Organic Revenue rose 4% year on year (beat)
- Market Capitalization: $16.39 billion
StockStory’s Take
Trimble’s fourth quarter results reflected a mixed environment, with the company surpassing Wall Street’s expectations for both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share despite a modest year-on-year decline in overall sales. Management pointed to the strength of recurring revenue streams—now representing nearly two-thirds of its business—as a key driver, particularly in the AECO (architecture, engineering, construction, and operations) and Field Systems segments. CEO Robert Painter highlighted the company’s “compounding returns” from its Connect & Scale platform strategy, emphasizing the expansion of software and services as well as growing adoption of AI-powered tools that automate customer workflows and unlock efficiencies across construction and logistics.
Looking ahead, Trimble’s guidance for the coming year is supported by expectations of continued ARR (annual recurring revenue) growth and incremental margin expansion, driven by broader adoption of agentic AI features and cloud-based workflows. Management believes that the company’s investments in scalable AI infrastructure and cross-segment integration will accelerate product releases and enhance monetization, especially through new consumption-based pricing models. CFO Phillip Sawarynski noted that internal productivity gains from AI are also freeing up resources for reinvestment, stating, “We’re able to reinvest in the business for growth, but also show the margin expansion with the operating leverage.”
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Management attributed the quarter’s performance to increased adoption of AI capabilities, strong cross-sell momentum, and the ongoing shift toward recurring revenue models across its core business segments.
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AI-enabled workflow adoption: The company saw rising demand for agentic AI tools, with customers using features like automated document processing and model analysis to reduce manual labor and realize significant productivity gains. Management cited customer cases where AI integration led to millions in labor savings and drove incremental ARR, especially in project management and MEP (mechanical, electrical, plumbing) estimating.
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Recurring revenue expansion: Trimble’s AECO and Field Systems segments continued their transition toward subscription and service-based models, with software and services reaching 79% of total revenue. The Field Systems business, for the first time, reported over half its revenue from software and services, reflecting the success of machine control guidance as a service and the broader adoption of Trimble Catalyst subscriptions.
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Cross-sell and upsell momentum: Management highlighted that more than 70% of new ACV (annual contract value) bookings came from existing customers, driven by bundled offerings and the Trimble Construction One (TC1) platform, which is reducing friction in the sales process and supporting international expansion.
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Geographic and segment diversification: The business remains well-balanced across regions and end markets, with notable growth in North America and continued opportunities for customer acquisition abroad. Segment KPIs show robust international expansion and increased penetration among customers purchasing multiple products.
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Operational leverage and efficiency gains: AI is not only customer-facing but is also being used internally to improve R&D and support operations. Management reported double-digit productivity improvements among engineers and case deflection rates of up to 20% in customer support, contributing to margin expansion and greater degrees of financial flexibility.
Drivers of Future Performance
Trimble’s outlook is grounded in accelerating AI adoption, increased recurring revenue, and a disciplined approach to reinvestment and margin expansion.
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Accelerated agentic AI rollout: Management expects broader deployment of agentic AI features across the AECO and Transportation segments in the coming year, aiming to drive both customer adoption and new consumption-based monetization. The company’s focus on embedding AI into core workflows is anticipated to create additional upsell opportunities and expand its addressable market.
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Continued recurring revenue growth: The transition from perpetual licenses to subscription models is expected to support mid-teens ARR growth, with management pointing to cross-sell and upsell dynamics—especially through platforms like Trimble Construction One—as sustainable drivers. Pricing increases are expected to play only a modest part in overall growth.
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Margin expansion amid reinvestment: While AI-driven efficiencies are helping to boost gross and operating margins, management is allocating resources to support cloud infrastructure, international rollouts, and ongoing product innovation. Risks include the pace of construction activity recovery and further market adoption of recurring and consumption-based models.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the pace and breadth of agentic AI feature releases and subsequent customer adoption, (2) the success of international expansion and further cross-sell activity within the TC1 platform, and (3) ongoing improvements in operating margins as recurring revenue increases. Additional attention will be given to how rapidly Trimble’s consumption-based monetization models scale and the company’s ability to maintain growth in a mixed macroeconomic environment.
Trimble currently trades at $68.98, up from $66.93 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
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