BellRing Brands’ fourth quarter was met with a negative market reaction, as sales and volumes remained flat year over year despite exceeding Wall Street’s expectations for revenue and non-GAAP profit. Management attributed the quarter’s performance to a combination of timing benefits from customer orders and ongoing promotional intensity from newer competitors. CEO Darcy Horn Davenport acknowledged that “the number of events [by insurgent brands] is tracking modestly ahead of our initial expectations,” leading to cautious adjustments in outlook. The company also noted that input cost inflation and heavier trade promotion weighed on operating margin.
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BellRing Brands (BRBR) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $537.3 million vs analyst estimates of $503.7 million (flat year on year, 6.7% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.37 vs analyst estimates of $0.32 (16.7% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $90.3 million vs analyst estimates of $80.97 million (16.8% margin, 11.5% beat)
- The company dropped its revenue guidance for the full year to $2.44 billion at the midpoint from $2.45 billion, a 0.6% decrease
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $432.5 million at the midpoint, in line with analyst expectations
- Operating Margin: 14.6%, down from 21.6% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue was flat year on year (beat)
- Sales Volumes were flat year on year (20.8% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $2.20 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From BellRing Brands’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Andrew Lazar (Barclays) asked about the mass merchandiser test’s impact on Premier Protein’s merchandising strategy. CEO Darcy Horn Davenport reported “record weekly sales” from rollback items and emphasized plans to replicate successful displays in other retailers.
- Megan Christine Alexander (Morgan Stanley) questioned why Premier Protein consumption lagged expectations despite expanded promotions. Davenport cited delayed setup in mass retail and increased competitor promotions, stating that consumption is “starting to see a nice increase” as execution improves.
- David Palmer (Evercore ISI) probed the realism behind guidance for mid to high single-digit growth amid persistent promotions. Davenport described the outlook as based on three pillars: distribution expansion, advertising, and innovation, with meaningful acceleration expected later in the year.
- Thomas Palmer (JPMorgan) asked about the competitive shakeout among insurgent brands in club channels. Davenport explained that some new entrants have already exited, but expects the 10% insurgent/crossover share to remain, with the set of competing brands shifting over time.
- Kaumil Gajrawala (Jefferies) questioned if the promotional environment was “irrational” and sustainable. Davenport acknowledged that some insurgent brands are less rational in their spending but views the current intensity as a temporary phase during the “protein craze.”
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the quarters ahead, our analyst team will monitor (1) the impact of expanded merchandising and single-serve displays on trial and repeat rates, (2) the effectiveness and ROI of new advertising campaigns and product launches—especially as growth is expected to accelerate in the second half, and (3) the evolving promotional landscape as insurgent brands compete for shelf space. The transition to a new CEO and execution of strategic initiatives will also be key signposts.
BellRing Brands currently trades at $18.89, down from $24.39 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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