Chipotle’s fourth quarter results for 2025 were met with a significant negative market reaction, as investors focused on declining same-store sales despite revenue and non-GAAP profit coming in ahead of Wall Street expectations. Management attributed the quarter’s performance to heightened consumer sensitivity to value and reduced restaurant spending, as well as the impact of a major winter storm that disrupted operations across multiple states. CEO Scott Boatwright acknowledged these headwinds, emphasizing the importance of continued investments in menu innovation and operational improvements, stating, “This makes our investments and progress even more significant and highlights Chipotle’s commitment to succeed through consumer cycles.”
Is now the time to buy CMG? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Chipotle (CMG) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.98 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.97 billion (4.9% year-on-year growth, 0.6% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.25 vs analyst estimates of $0.24 (4.9% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $512.2 million vs analyst estimates of $504.4 million (17.2% margin, 1.5% beat)
- Operating Margin: 14.1%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Locations: 4,042 at quarter end, up from 3,726 in the same quarter last year
- Same-Store Sales fell 2.5% year on year (5.4% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $51.56 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Chipotle’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Brian Bittner (Piper Sandler) pressed for details on the components of flat same-store sales guidance, including transactions and menu mix. CFO Adam Rymer responded that only a modest impact from new initiatives is assumed and comps are expected to improve through the year as strategies take hold.
- Sara Senatore (Bank of America) asked about the performance and marketing of limited-time menu offers (LTOs) and any risk of disruption given the CMO search. CEO Scott Boatwright explained the marketing will evolve to better celebrate Chipotle’s differentiation, and the leadership change is viewed as a next chapter rather than a disruption.
- Lauren Silberman (Deutsche Bank) questioned trends in January and the impact of winter storms on results. Boatwright and Rymer clarified that the storm had a 100 basis point impact on comps, and underlying trends excluding weather disruptions were stronger.
- David Tarantino (Baird) inquired about margin outlook and the path toward long-term margin targets. Rymer detailed that near-term margin pressure is expected due to inflation outpacing pricing, but transaction growth and operational efficiencies should restore margins over time.
- Chris O’Cull (Stifel) sought specifics on the CMO search and how Chipotle will target lapsed or light users. Boatwright described the need for a leader skilled in digital and innovative marketing, and highlighted plans to use AI-driven personalization to reengage infrequent guests.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the impact of high-efficiency kitchen equipment on restaurant throughput and guest satisfaction, (2) the effectiveness of the rewards program relaunch in driving transaction growth and loyalty engagement, and (3) the rollout and performance of four new limited-time menu offers. Additional milestones include progress on international expansion and the ability to maintain value perception amid industry-wide inflation.
Chipotle currently trades at $39.63, up from $39.17 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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