Global financial services giant JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) met Wall Streets revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, with sales up 6.9% year on year to $46.77 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $4.63 per share was 4.6% below analysts’ consensus estimates.
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $46.77 billion vs analyst estimates of $46.55 billion (6.9% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Adjusted EPS: $4.63 vs analyst expectations of $4.86 (4.6% miss)
- Adjusted Operating Income: $18.13 billion vs analyst estimates of $21.57 billion (38.8% margin, 15.9% miss)
- Market Capitalization: $838.2 billion
StockStory’s Take
JPMorgan Chase’s fourth quarter was marked by a negative market reaction despite meeting Wall Street’s revenue expectations and exceeding non-GAAP profit estimates. Management pointed to higher markets revenue, growth in asset management fees, and increased auto lease income as key drivers, while also acknowledging the impact of a significant reserve build related to the Apple Card portfolio. CFO Jeremy Barnum noted, “Revenue of $46.8 billion was up 7% year on year on higher markets revenue as well as higher asset management fees and auto lease income.” Concerns around expense growth and regulatory issues, particularly in credit cards, were highlighted as reasons for investor caution.
Looking ahead, management expects continued loan growth in cards, albeit at a slower pace, and modest deposit growth as a result of changing consumer behavior and persistent yield-seeking flows. Investment in technology and ongoing modernization, including integration of the Apple Card platform, are central to the strategy. CEO Jamie Dimon observed, “We are opening more branches, building better payment systems, and adding AI across the company,” emphasizing that these investments are crucial to staying competitive. However, Dimon also acknowledged geopolitical and regulatory risks, adding, “Geopolitical is an enormous amount of risk. I don’t have to go through each part of it—it’s just a big matter of risk.”
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Management attributed the quarter’s performance to strong asset and wealth management inflows, robust card growth, and increased market activity, while also addressing expense growth and evolving regulatory pressures.
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Card growth and Apple Card integration: The firm saw higher revolving balances in cards, with card sales volume up 7% year over year. The acquisition and integration of the Apple Card portfolio was a major operational focus, requiring a two-year technology overhaul due to Apple’s unique tech stack. Management expects this integration to accelerate modernization in the card business and improve user experience.
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Asset and wealth management inflows: Asset and wealth management achieved net inflows of $52 billion for the quarter and $553 billion for the year, with growth across all regions and asset classes. This segment also benefited from higher market levels and performance fees, supporting overall revenue growth.
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Expense growth driven by investments: Operating expenses rose 5% from last year, driven by higher volume, compensation, and ongoing investment in technology and branch expansion. Management emphasized that these investments are necessary to secure JPMorgan Chase’s competitive position, particularly against fintech and non-traditional rivals.
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Market activity and trading performance: The corporate and investment bank posted a 10% year-over-year revenue increase, with strong results in fixed income and equities trading, especially in areas like securitized products, rates, and emerging market currencies. However, investment banking fees declined slightly due to timing of deals.
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Regulatory and competitive landscape: Management discussed increasing competition from fintech firms and evolving regulatory frameworks, particularly surrounding credit card pricing and stablecoins. These factors are expected to influence both strategy and risk management in the coming quarters.
Drivers of Future Performance
JPMorgan Chase’s outlook is shaped by moderated loan growth, technology investments, and the impact of regulatory and competitive dynamics on margins.
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Credit card and deposit trends: Management expects continued, but slower, growth in card loans as the normalization of revolving balances plays out. Deposit growth is projected to be modest, as yield-seeking flows remain a factor and consumer balances per account are slow to recover. Wholesale deposit growth is expected to moderate after a strong prior year.
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Expense growth from strategic investment: The company is planning for meaningful expense growth in 2026, primarily to fund technology upgrades, AI adoption, and expansion in branches and payment systems. Management stressed that these investments are essential for long-term competitiveness, even if they pressure efficiency ratios in the near term.
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Regulatory and macroeconomic risks: The company faces potential headwinds from proposed credit card rate caps, ongoing regulatory changes, and geopolitical uncertainties. Management indicated that regulatory developments could have a significant impact on the credit card business and capital requirements, while macroeconomic factors such as consumer resilience and liquidity from central bank actions remain supportive but are closely monitored.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Going forward, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the progress of the Apple Card integration and whether it drives broader modernization in the card business, (2) the pace and impact of technology and AI investments across key divisions, and (3) regulatory developments affecting credit card pricing, capital standards, and stablecoin adoption. Execution in these areas will be critical to sustaining growth and managing expense pressures.
JPMorgan Chase currently trades at $312.19, down from $324.73 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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