Pfizer closed the fourth quarter with revenue ahead of Wall Street expectations, but the market reacted negatively due to a combination of year-over-year sales decline and shrinking operating margins. Management explained that the drop in COVID-19 product demand weighed heavily on overall results, while non-COVID products delivered solid operational growth. CEO Albert Bourla cited the impact of a “narrow recommendation for vaccines in the US” as a driver behind lower COVID product sales and highlighted double-digit operational growth in recently launched and acquired products. Additionally, Pfizer’s ongoing cost optimization initiatives and a focus on pipeline development were emphasized as responses to the changing business environment.
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Pfizer (PFE) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $17.56 billion vs analyst estimates of $16.65 billion (1.2% year-on-year decline, 5.5% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.66 vs analyst estimates of $0.57 (16.2% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $5.52 billion vs analyst estimates of $6.07 billion (31.5% margin, 9.1% miss)
- Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $2.90 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 2.4%
- Operating Margin: 24.6%, up from 15.9% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue fell 3% year on year (miss)
- Market Capitalization: $153.8 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Pfizer’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Christopher Schott (JPMorgan) asked about the tolerability of PF-3944 at higher monthly doses and how the weight loss profile compares to weekly dosing. Chief Scientific Officer Chris Boshoff explained the study allowed only two step-up doses but showed balanced tolerability and robust efficacy, with more flexible titration planned for phase 3.
- Akash Tewari (Jefferies) questioned the confidence in the upcoming phase 3 results for the B6A antibody in lung cancer, given mixed prior data. Boshoff responded that the combination studies have shown encouraging response rates and that two pivotal trials aim to demonstrate superiority over existing chemotherapy.
- Courtney Breen (Bernstein) probed the impact of AI investment on R&D productivity and whether it will affect operational costs in future pivotal trials. CFO Dave Denton emphasized that AI is already enabling Pfizer to handle more programs with the same infrastructure, improving productivity and enabling reinvestment.
- Jason Gerberry (Bank of America) sought clarification on the commercial potential and differentiation of GLP-1/amylin combination therapies versus monotherapy. Commercial leaders described the strategy as meeting diverse patient needs through portfolio breadth and dosing convenience.
- Evan Seigerman (BMO Capital Markets) asked about tangible metrics for AI-driven productivity and return on investment. Management cited examples in sales force efficiency, targeted marketing spend, and manufacturing automation as early evidence of impact.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, our analysts will be watching (1) the progression and readouts from key phase 3 studies in Pfizer’s obesity and oncology portfolios, (2) the impact of generic competition and the company’s ability to stabilize non-COVID revenue streams, and (3) the implementation of AI initiatives to drive operational efficiencies and cost reductions. Additional attention will be given to upcoming product launches and regulatory milestones, particularly in chronic weight management and rare disease.
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