What Happened?
Shares of off-Road and powersports vehicle corporation Polaris (NYSE:PII) fell 6.4% in the afternoon session after the company provided a full-year earnings forecast for 2026 that fell short of analysts' expectations, overshadowing its fourth-quarter results.
Although Polaris's fourth-quarter revenue of $1.92 billion represented 7.9% year-on-year growth and surpassed estimates, and its adjusted earnings per share of $0.08 also beat expectations, investors focused on the weaker outlook. For the full year 2026, the company projected adjusted earnings per share with a midpoint of $1.55, missing consensus estimates by 8.8%. Adding to the negative sentiment, the company's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter missed expectations, and its operating margin contracted significantly compared to the same period last year. The downbeat guidance suggested to investors that profitability challenges would persist.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. Is now the time to buy Polaris? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
What Is The Market Telling Us
Polaris’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 30 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 19 days ago when the stock gained 4.6% on the news that Seaport Global Securities initiated coverage on the stock with a "Buy" rating and an $83 price target.
The price target represented about a 20% potential upside from where the stock was trading. In its research, the firm pointed to Polaris's position as a manufacturer of high-quality outdoor recreational products, such as off-road vehicles, snowmobiles, motorcycles, and boats, as key reasons for its positive outlook. The new coverage from analyst Gerrick Johnson at the financial services firm marked a significant development for the company.
Polaris is flat since the beginning of the year, and at $66.04 per share, it is trading 10.3% below its 52-week high of $73.60 from January 2026. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Polaris’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $562.62.
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