Post delivered results in line with Wall Street’s sales expectations and significantly exceeded consensus profit estimates in Q4, prompting a strong positive market reaction. Management attributed the quarter’s performance to robust volume growth in the Foodservice segment, improved operational efficiency, and gains in value-added eggs. CEO Rob Vitale highlighted the impact of portfolio moves, including the sale of the 8th Avenue Pasta business, which supported stable net leverage and enabled continued capital allocation flexibility. "Our strong operating performance, along with our Q1 sale of the 8th Avenue Pasta business, has allowed us to hold net leverage flat," Vitale stated.
Is now the time to buy POST? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Post (POST) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.17 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.18 billion (10.1% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Adjusted EPS: $2.13 vs analyst estimates of $1.67 (27.7% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $385.1 million vs analyst estimates of $386.1 million (17.7% margin, in line)
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $1.57 billion at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $1.52 billion
- Operating Margin: 11%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $5.32 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Post’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Andrew Lazar (Barclays) asked about the company’s preference for buybacks over M&A given lower market valuations. CEO Rob Vitale responded that as multiples decrease, acquisitions become more attractive, but decisions remain opportunity-driven.
- Matthew Smith (Stifel) questioned whether the improved Foodservice run rate would be sustained and how guidance reflects the rest of the portfolio. CFO Matt Mainer said the balance of the business is tracking initial expectations and improvements are primarily from Foodservice.
- David Palmer (Evercore ISI) asked about competitive promotional activity in cereal and whether it might alter Post’s strategy. COO Nico Catoggio said promotional spending was tactically reduced due to assortment changes, but there is no broader shift in approach.
- Thomas Palmer (JPMorgan) sought clarity on earnings cadence and the impact of holiday and inventory timing in Q2. Mainer noted Q1’s seasonal strength in refrigerated retail and highlighted that most cost benefits from plant closures will show up in the second half.
- Michael Lavery (Piper Sandler) inquired about the drivers of price/mix pressures in pet food. Catoggio explained that pricing tests in Nutrish were the main factor, with plans to address them through brand relaunches and revised pricing structures.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, our analysts will be watching (1) the stickiness of higher Foodservice earnings and whether value-added egg volumes remain robust, (2) the realization of cost savings from cereal facility closures and their impact on margins, and (3) progress on new product launches in cereal, pet, and refrigerated retail. Execution on private label expansion and stabilization in pet food price/mix will also be important signals.
Post currently trades at $111.75, up from $104.41 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
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