Triumph Financial (TFIN)

Financial services company Triumph Financial (NASDAQ:TFIN) fell short of the market’s revenue expectations in Q3 CY2025 as sales rose 3% year on year to $109.3 million. Its GAAP profit of $0.04 per share decreased from $0.19 in the same quarter last year.

Company Overview

Originally focused on traditional banking before pivoting to serve the transportation sector, Triumph Financial (NASDAQ:TFIN) provides specialized financial services to the trucking industry, including payments processing, factoring, banking, and data intelligence solutions.

Regional banks, financial institutions operating within specific geographic areas, serve as intermediaries between local depositors and borrowers. They benefit from rising interest rates that improve net interest margins (the difference between loan yields and deposit costs), digital transformation reducing operational expenses, and local economic growth driving loan demand. However, these banks face headwinds from fintech competition, deposit outflows to higher-yielding alternatives, credit deterioration (increasing loan defaults) during economic slowdowns, and regulatory compliance costs. Recent concerns about regional bank stability following high-profile failures and significant commercial real estate exposure present additional challenges.

Triumph Financial competes with traditional banks offering transportation financing like Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), specialized factoring companies such as Crestmark (a division of MetaBank), and payment technology providers like AscendTMS and Truckstop.com in the freight technology space.

Two primary revenue streams drive bank earnings. While net interest income, which is earned by charging higher rates on loans than paid on deposits, forms the foundation, fee-based services across banking, credit, wealth management, and trading operations provide additional income. Luckily, Triumph Financial’s revenue grew at a decent 6% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years. Its growth was slightly above the average banking company and shows its offerings resonate with customers.

We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within financials, a half-decade historical view may miss recent interest rate changes, market returns, and industry trends. Triumph Financial’s recent performance shows its demand has slowed as its revenue was flat over the last two years. Note: Quarters not shown were determined to be outliers, impacted by outsized investment gains/losses that are not indicative of the recurring fundamentals of the business.

This quarter, Triumph Financial’s revenue grew by 3% year on year to $109.3 million, falling short of Wall Street’s estimates.

Net interest income made up 84.9% of the company’s total revenue during the last five years, meaning Triumph Financial barely relies on non-interest income to drive its overall growth.

While banks generate revenue from multiple sources, investors view net interest income as the cornerstone - its predictable, recurring characteristics stand in sharp contrast to the volatility of non-interest income.

Revenue trends explain a company’s historical growth, but the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) points to the profitability of that growth – for example, a company could inflate its sales through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.

Sadly for Triumph Financial, its EPS declined by 31.6% annually over the last five years while its revenue grew by 6%. This tells us the company became less profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded due to factors such as interest expenses and taxes.

Like with revenue, we analyze EPS over a more recent period because it can provide insight into an emerging theme or development for the business.

Triumph Financial’s two-year annual EPS declines of 60.9% were bad and lower than its flat revenue.

Diving into the nuances of Triumph Financial’s earnings can give us a better understanding of its performance. A two-year view shows Triumph Financial has diluted its shareholders, growing its share count by 1.3%. This has led to lower per share earnings. Taxes can also affect EPS but don’t tell us as much about a company’s fundamentals.

In Q3, Triumph Financial reported EPS of $0.04, down from $0.19 in the same quarter last year. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Triumph Financial’s full-year EPS of $0.29 to grow 434%.

Banks are balance sheet-driven businesses because they generate earnings primarily through borrowing and lending. They’re also valued based on their balance sheet strength and ability to compound book value (another name for shareholders’ equity) over time.

This is why we consider tangible book value per share (TBVPS) the most important metric to track for banks. TBVPS represents the real, liquid net worth per share of a bank, excluding intangible assets that have debatable value upon liquidation. Other (and more commonly known) per-share metrics like EPS can sometimes be murky due to M&A or accounting rules allowing for loan losses to be spread out.

Triumph Financial’s TBVPS grew at a sluggish 1.2% annual clip over the last five years. On a two-year basis, however, dynamics have changed as TBVPS dropped by 8.5% annually ($23.54 to $19.70 per share).

Over the next 12 months, Consensus estimates call for Triumph Financial’s TBVPS to grow by 11.8% to $22.02, top-notch growth rate.

Leverage is core to a financial firm’s business model (loans funded by deposits). To ensure economic stability and avoid a repeat of the 2008 GFC, regulators require certain levels of capital and liquidity, focusing on the Tier 1 capital ratio.

Tier 1 capital is the highest-quality capital that a firm holds, consisting primarily of common stock and retained earnings, but also physical gold. It serves as the primary cushion against losses and is the first line of defense in times of financial distress.

This capital is divided by risk-weighted assets to derive the Tier 1 capital ratio. Risk-weighted means that cash and US treasury securities are assigned little risk while unsecured consumer loans and equity investments get much higher risk weights, for example.

New regulation after the 2008 financial crisis requires that all firms must maintain a Tier 1 capital ratio greater than 4.5%. On top of this, there are additional buffers based on scale, risk profile, and other regulatory classifications, so that at the end of the day, firms generally must maintain a 7-10% ratio at minimum.

Over the last two years, Triumph Financial has averaged a Tier 1 capital ratio of 10.9%, which is considered safe and well capitalized in the event that macro or market conditions suddenly deteriorate.

Return on equity (ROE) reveals the profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity, which represents a key source of bank funding. Banks maintaining elevated ROE levels tend to accelerate wealth creation for shareholders via earnings retention, buybacks, and distributions.

Over the last five years, Triumph Financial has averaged an ROE of 7.6%, respectable for a company operating in a sector where the average shakes out around 7.5% and those putting up 15%+ are greatly admired.

It was good to see Triumph Financial narrowly top analysts’ tangible book value per share expectations this quarter. On the other hand, its net interest income missed and its revenue fell slightly short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this was a weaker quarter. The stock traded down 2.9% to $46.53 immediately after reporting.

Updated: December 4, 2025 at 11:31 PM EST

Are you wondering whether to buy Triumph Financial or pass? We urge investors to not only consider the latest earnings results but also longer-term business quality and valuation as well.

We cheer for all companies supporting the economy, but in the case of Triumph Financial, we’ll be cheering from the sidelines. To begin with, its revenue growth was uninspiring over the last five years. And while its admirable net interest margin a wonderful starting point for the overall profitability of the business, the downside is its TBVPS growth was weak over the last five years. On top of that, its declining EPS over the last five years makes it a less attractive asset to the public markets.

Triumph Financial’s P/B ratio based on the next 12 months is 1.6x. At this valuation, there’s a lot of good news priced in - we think there are better opportunities elsewhere.

Wall Street analysts have a consensus one-year price target of $62 on the company (compared to the current share price of $61.07).