Post (POST)

Packaged foods company Post (NYSE:POST) met Wall Streets revenue expectations in Q3 CY2025, with sales up 11.8% year on year to $2.25 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $2.09 per share was 11.4% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Company Overview

Founded in 1895, Post (NYSE:POST) is a packaged food company known for its namesake breakfast cereal and healthier-for-you snacks.

As America industrialized and moved away from an agricultural economy, people faced more demands on their time. Packaged foods emerged as a solution offering convenience to the evolving American family, whether it be canned goods or snacks. Today, Americans seek brands that are high in quality, reliable, and reasonably priced. Furthermore, there's a growing emphasis on health-conscious and sustainable food options. Packaged food stocks are considered resilient investments. People always need to eat, so these companies can enjoy consistent demand as long as they stay on top of changing consumer preferences. The industry spans from multinational corporations to smaller specialized firms and is subject to food safety and labeling regulations.

Competitors in the packaged food space and specifically in breakfast cereals include General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Kellogg (NYSE:K), and Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC).

A company’s long-term sales performance can indicate its overall quality. Any business can experience short-term success, but top-performing ones enjoy sustained growth for years.

With $8.16 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, Post is one of the larger consumer staples companies and benefits from a well-known brand that influences purchasing decisions.

As you can see below, Post’s 11.7% annualized revenue growth over the last three years was solid despite consumers buying less of its products. We’ll explore what this means in the "Volume Growth" section.

This quarter, Post’s year-on-year revenue growth was 11.8%, and its $2.25 billion of revenue was in line with Wall Street’s estimates.

Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 5.9% over the next 12 months, a deceleration versus the last three years. Despite the slowdown, this projection is above average for the sector and suggests the market is baking in some success for its newer products.

All else equal, we prefer higher gross margins because they usually indicate that a company sells more differentiated products, has a stronger brand, and commands pricing power.

Post’s gross margin is slightly below the average consumer staples company, giving it less room to invest in areas such as marketing and talent to grow its brand. As you can see below, it averaged a 28.9% gross margin over the last two years. Said differently, for every $100 in revenue, a chunky $71.12 went towards paying for raw materials, production of goods, transportation, and distribution.

Post’s gross profit margin came in at 26.8% this quarter, down 1.8 percentage points year on year. On a wider time horizon, the company’s full-year margin has remained steady over the past four quarters, suggesting its input costs (such as raw materials and manufacturing expenses) have been stable and it isn’t under pressure to lower prices.

Operating margin is an important measure of profitability as it shows the portion of revenue left after accounting for all core expenses – everything from the cost of goods sold to advertising and wages. It’s also useful for comparing profitability across companies with different levels of debt and tax rates because it excludes interest and taxes.

Post’s operating margin might fluctuated slightly over the last 12 months but has remained more or less the same, averaging 9.9% over the last two years. This profitability was higher than the broader consumer staples sector, showing it did a decent job managing its expenses.

Looking at the trend in its profitability, Post’s operating margin might fluctuated slightly but has generally stayed the same over the last year. This raises questions about the company’s expense base because its revenue growth should have given it leverage on its fixed costs, resulting in better economies of scale and profitability.

This quarter, Post generated an operating margin profit margin of 7.5%, down 2 percentage points year on year. Since Post’s operating margin decreased more than its gross margin, we can assume it was less efficient because expenses such as marketing, and administrative overhead increased.

We track the change in earnings per share (EPS) for the same reason as long-term revenue growth. Compared to revenue, however, EPS highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.

In Q3, Post reported adjusted EPS of $2.09, up from $1.53 in the same quarter last year. This print easily cleared analysts’ estimates, and shareholders should be content with the results. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Post’s full-year EPS of $7.26 to grow 7.2%.

Although earnings are undoubtedly valuable for assessing company performance, we believe cash is king because you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.

Post has shown decent cash profitability, giving it some flexibility to reinvest or return capital to investors. The company’s free cash flow margin averaged 6.2% over the last two years, slightly better than the broader consumer staples sector.

Post’s free cash flow clocked in at $151.6 million in Q3, equivalent to a 6.7% margin. This result was good as its margin was 2 percentage points higher than in the same quarter last year, but we wouldn’t put too much weight on the short term because investment needs can be seasonal, causing temporary swings. Long-term trends are more important.

EPS and free cash flow tell us whether a company was profitable while growing its revenue. But was it capital-efficient? A company’s ROIC explains this by showing how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

Post historically did a mediocre job investing in profitable growth initiatives. Its five-year average ROIC was 5.7%, somewhat low compared to the best consumer staples companies that consistently pump out 20%+.

Post reported $182.8 million of cash and $7.42 billion of debt on its balance sheet in the most recent quarter. As investors in high-quality companies, we primarily focus on two things: 1) that a company’s debt level isn’t too high and 2) that its interest payments are not excessively burdening the business.

With $1.48 billion of EBITDA over the last 12 months, we view Post’s 4.9× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio as safe. We also see its $145.3 million of annual interest expenses as appropriate. The company’s profits give it plenty of breathing room, allowing it to continue investing in growth initiatives.

We enjoyed seeing Post beat analysts’ EBITDA expectations this quarter. We were also glad its EPS outperformed Wall Street’s estimates. On the other hand, its gross margin missed and its full-year EBITDA guidance fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Zooming out, we think this was a mixed quarter. Investors were likely hoping for more, and shares traded down 3.8% to $103.00 immediately following the results.

Updated: December 4, 2025 at 9:51 PM EST

Before investing in or passing on Post, we urge you to understand the company’s business quality (or lack thereof), valuation, and the latest quarterly results - in that order.

Post’s business quality ultimately falls short of our standards. Although its revenue growth was solid over the last three years, it’s expected to deteriorate over the next 12 months and its projected EPS for the next year is lacking. And while the company’s EPS growth over the last three years has been fantastic, the downside is its shrinking sales volumes suggest it’ll need to change its strategy to succeed.

Post’s P/E ratio based on the next 12 months is 14.3x. This valuation multiple is fair, but we don’t have much faith in the company. We're pretty confident there are superior stocks to buy right now.

Wall Street analysts have a consensus one-year price target of $123.22 on the company (compared to the current share price of $97.92).

Although the price target is bullish, readers should exercise caution because analysts tend to be overly optimistic. The firms they work for, often big banks, have relationships with companies that extend into fundraising, M&A advisory, and other rewarding business lines. As a result, they typically hesitate to say bad things for fear they will lose out. We at StockStory do not suffer from such conflicts of interest, so we’ll always tell it like it is.