Bunge Global (BG)

Global agribusiness company Bunge Global (NYSE:BG) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q3 CY2025, but sales rose 71.6% year on year to $22.16 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $2.27 per share was 15.3% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Company Overview

With origins dating back to 1818 and operations spanning both hemispheres to balance seasonal harvests, Bunge Global (NYSE:BG) is an agribusiness and food company that processes oilseeds, grains, and other agricultural commodities into vegetable oils, protein meals, flours, and specialty ingredients.

Ingredients, flavors, and fragrances companies supply essential components to food, beverage, personal care, and household product manufacturers. These firms develop proprietary formulations that enhance taste, scent, and texture, creating customer stickiness through specialized expertise and regulatory-approved ingredient portfolios. Tailwinds include growing consumer demand for natural and clean-label products, expansion in emerging markets, and innovation in plant-based and functional ingredients. However, headwinds persist from volatile raw material costs, particularly for agricultural and petrochemical inputs. Regulatory scrutiny over synthetic additives and fragrance allergens poses compliance challenges, while consolidation among major customers increases pricing pressure and negotiating leverage against suppliers.

Bunge Global's primary competitors include Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM), Cargill Incorporated (privately held), Louis Dreyfus Company (privately held), Wilmar International (SGX:F34), and COFCO International (part of state-owned COFCO Group).

A company’s long-term performance is an indicator of its overall quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years.

With $60.11 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, Bunge Global is one of the most widely recognized consumer staples companies. Its influence over consumers gives it negotiating leverage with distributors, enabling it to pick and choose where it sells its products (a luxury many don’t have). However, its scale is a double-edged sword because there are only a finite number of major retail partners, placing a ceiling on its growth. To accelerate sales, Bunge Global likely needs to optimize its pricing or lean into new products and international expansion.

As you can see below, Bunge Global’s revenue declined by 3.7% per year over the last three years despite consumers buying more of its products. We’ll explore what this means in the "Volume Growth" section.

This quarter, Bunge Global achieved a magnificent 71.6% year-on-year revenue growth rate, but its $22.16 billion of revenue fell short of Wall Street’s lofty estimates.

Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 47.7% over the next 12 months, an acceleration versus the last three years. This projection is eye-popping for a company of its scale and implies its newer products will spur better top-line performance.

Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). While both are important, volume is the lifeblood of a successful staples business as there’s a ceiling to what consumers will pay for everyday goods; they can always trade down to non-branded products if the branded versions are too expensive.

Bunge Global’s average quarterly volume growth of 2,884,475,000% over the last two years has beaten the competition by a long shot. This is great because companies with significant volume growth are needles in a haystack in the stable consumer staples sector.

In Bunge Global’s Q3 2025, sales volumes jumped 4,990,800,000% year on year. This result was an acceleration from its historical levels, certainly a positive signal.

All else equal, we prefer higher gross margins because they make it easier to generate more operating profits and indicate that a company commands pricing power by offering more differentiated products.

Bunge Global has bad unit economics for a consumer staples company, signaling it operates in a competitive market and lacks pricing power because its products can be substituted. As you can see below, it averaged a 6.1% gross margin over the last two years. That means Bunge Global paid its suppliers a lot of money ($93.90 for every $100 in revenue) to run its business.

Bunge Global’s gross profit margin came in at 4.8% this quarter, down 1.2 percentage points year on year. Zooming out, the company’s full-year margin has remained steady over the past 12 months, suggesting its input costs (such as raw materials and manufacturing expenses) have been stable and it isn’t under pressure to lower prices.

Bunge Global’s operating margin might fluctuated slightly over the last 12 months but has remained more or less the same, averaging 2.9% over the last two years. This profitability was paltry for a consumer staples business and caused by its suboptimal cost structureand low gross margin.

Looking at the trend in its profitability, Bunge Global’s operating margin might fluctuated slightly but has generally stayed the same over the last year, meaning it will take a fundamental shift in the business model to change.

In Q3, Bunge Global generated an operating margin profit margin of 1.7%, in line with the same quarter last year. This indicates the company’s cost structure has recently been stable.

We track the change in earnings per share (EPS) for the same reason as long-term revenue growth. Compared to revenue, however, EPS highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.

In Q3, Bunge Global reported adjusted EPS of $2.27, down from $2.29 in the same quarter last year. Despite falling year on year, this print easily cleared analysts’ estimates. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Bunge Global’s full-year EPS of $7.52 to grow 7.2%.

Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.

Bunge Global broke even from a free cash flow perspective over the last two years, giving the company limited opportunities to return capital to shareholders.

Taking a step back, we can see that Bunge Global’s margin dropped by 3.9 percentage points over the last year. Almost any movement in the wrong direction is undesirable because of its already low cash conversion. If the trend continues, it could signal it’s becoming a more capital-intensive business.

Bunge Global’s free cash flow clocked in at $385 million in Q3, equivalent to a 1.7% margin. The company’s cash profitability regressed as it was 5.8 percentage points lower than in the same quarter last year, but it’s still above its two-year average. We wouldn’t put too much weight on this quarter’s decline because capital expenditures can be seasonal and companies often stockpile inventory in anticipation of higher demand, causing short-term swings. Long-term trends trump temporary fluctuations.

EPS and free cash flow tell us whether a company was profitable while growing its revenue. But was it capital-efficient? Enter ROIC, a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

Although Bunge Global hasn’t been the highest-quality company lately because of its poor revenue and EPS performance, it historically found a few growth initiatives that worked out well. Its five-year average ROIC was 18.4%, impressive for a consumer staples business.

As long-term investors, the risk we care about most is the permanent loss of capital, which can happen when a company goes bankrupt or raises money from a disadvantaged position. This is separate from short-term stock price volatility, something we are much less bothered by.

Bunge Global burned through $1.12 billion of cash over the last year, and its $17.23 billion of debt exceeds the $1.32 billion of cash on its balance sheet. This is a deal breaker for us because indebted loss-making companies spell trouble.

Unless the Bunge Global’s fundamentals change quickly, it might find itself in a position where it must raise capital from investors to continue operating. Whether that would be favorable is unclear because dilution is a headwind for shareholder returns.

We remain cautious of Bunge Global until it generates consistent free cash flow or any of its announced financing plans materialize on its balance sheet.

We were impressed by how significantly Bunge Global blew past analysts’ EBITDA expectations this quarter. We were also glad its EPS outperformed Wall Street’s estimates. On the other hand, its revenue missed and its gross margin fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this print was mixed but still had some key positives. The stock remained flat at $89.89 immediately following the results.

The latest quarterly earnings matters, sure, but we actually think longer-term fundamentals and valuation matter more. Investors should consider all these pieces before deciding whether or not to invest in Bunge Global.

Bunge Global isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our quality test. For starters, its revenue has declined over the last three years. And while its volume growth has been in a league of its own, the downside is its declining EPS over the last three years makes it a less attractive asset to the public markets. On top of that, its gross margins make it more challenging to reach positive operating profits compared to other consumer staples businesses.

Bunge Global’s P/E ratio based on the next 12 months is 11.1x. This valuation multiple is fair, but we don’t have much faith in the company. We're fairly confident there are better investments elsewhere.

Wall Street analysts have a consensus one-year price target of $109.33 on the company (compared to the current share price of $89.89).

Although the price target is bullish, readers should exercise caution because analysts tend to be overly optimistic. The firms they work for, often big banks, have relationships with companies that extend into fundraising, M&A advisory, and other rewarding business lines. As a result, they typically hesitate to say bad things for fear they will lose out. We at StockStory do not suffer from such conflicts of interest, so we’ll always tell it like it is.